Page 30 - AVN December 2016

LEGAL NEWS
LEGALESE | | By Clyde DeWitt
Bumpy Ride
In the wake of November 8, now what?
every Republican
”Remember that
administration
since Reagan’s
second term
has put an
emphasis on
obscenity
prosecution.
Clyde DeWitt is a Las Vegas and Los Angeles
attorney, whose practice has been focused on adult
entertainment since 1980. He can be reached at
ClydeDeWitt@earthlink.net. More information can
be found at ClydeDeWitt.com. This column is not a
substitute for personal legal advice. Rather, it is to alert
readers to legal issues warranting advice from your
personal attorney.
“I love the uneducated,” proclaimed Donald Trump. And you now
can see why. Trump persuaded the Rust Belt that the mills
would all reopen, which alone was enough to carry the day in
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan and the election as a
result; he persuaded an element of the electorate that he would
deliver all kinds of expensive things while lowering taxes to the
point that they overlooked what it would do to the deficit. That
was it. The usual Republican/Democrat split was what it was—
abortion, labor, etc.
Now what?
First, the Supreme Court will return to what it was, at least
for now. The vacant spot created by Justice Scalia’s death will
be replaced by someone who certainly will be like-minded. But
you’d better hope that Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Ginsburg
and Kennedy hang in there for four more years. And that is
especially true for the latter two because Justice Kennedy is 80
and Justice Ginsburg is 83. A flip of either of those to a Trump
nominee that would be rubber stamped by the Senate could
spell disaster. A flip of two of them would almost certainly
doom Roe v. Wade for starters. “Bar room” exotic dancing likely
would lose First Amendment protection. And remember Justice
Scalia’s question to the government lawyers in United States v.
Playboy, wondering how the subject R-rated movies possibly
could be protected by the First Amendment? Put three more
Scalia-types on the court and who knows what would happen
to this industry.
And along those lines, remember that every Republican
administration since Reagan’s second term has put an
emphasis on obscenity prosecution. The only exception to
that was Bush 43: Attorney General John Ashcroft’s anti-porn
efforts were sidetracked for a few years because of 9/11.
That’s four years. If, as has happened in most instances in
recent years (all except Carter and Bush 41), a president who
runs for reelection wins, then that would be eight years.
However, Trump is sure to fall far short of delivering his
promises and therefore likely will be ousted by a Democrat in
2020.
One reason that may happen is the inevitable clash between
Trump and the Tea Party, which remains a force. If The Donald
attempts to deliver what he is promising, the Tea Party will
fight it. What he has promised would cost a ton of money; and
the Tea Party is not going stand for either higher taxes or a
higher deficit.
Also, there is Obamacare. There is no way Congress can
come up with an acceptable alternative so long as the cost of
medical services and pharmaceuticals remains so high.
And education will not be solved. There is no way that in
four years the existing system of education, where starving
students generate huge loans to pay wealthy professors to write
books and articles, is likely to change.
Most of all, the mills in the Rust Belt are not going to re-
open—none of them. That alone will turn the election results
around.
The above factors well could be in play in two years when
Congress is up in the off-year election. Historically, in off-year
elections, the party in power loses seats in Congress. So, Trump
may only have a free ride for two years.
This was a close election. Real close. In fact, as this goes
to press, Secretary Clinton won the popular vote; the second
time in recent years a candidate has lost in the electoral college
while winning the popular vote—the first being Bush v. Gore.
This is a bitterly divided country and increasingly so.
Fasten your seat belts!
30 | AVN.com | 12.16